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Asks even if chance administration concepts may be effectively utilized to modern nationwide defense challenges.
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Additional info for Managing strategic surprise : lessons from risk management and risk assessment
Environment, and little on alliances and smoothing. A discussion of each of the six approaches will clarify the framework. Isolating critical assets from uncertainty The isolating approach insulates critical assets from external shocks. There are many ways to do this. Targets can be hardened to withstand attack. Or, critical assets can be grouped in ways that makes sure all of them will not be vulnerable at the same time, or in the same way. Portfolio diversification of investments preserves capital by insulating it from “big” shocks.
How to build a warning system 27 change, and each suggests a link to organizational capacities for dealing with them. 1 can be put to use in scenarios to explore the implications of different dangers. Van der Linde’s chapter points out that a widely accepted energy scenario of the early 1990s of globalization and multilateralism contained important risk management implications built in to it. A different scenario, call it weak globalization, has different risks. It therefore requires a different mix of capacities for dealing with it.
28 Each of these terms is taken from criticism of the CIA either by official commissions or respected commentators on intelligence. How to build a warning system 21 Surprise cannot be eliminated. This is true. Let us get this out on the table at the outset. But the cynic’s counsel suffers from the same drawback as the critic’s. It places a vocabulary of failure at the center of the framework. Policy makers – senior leaders and politicians – are by temperament and inclination unlikely to respond well to this way of approaching problems.