By Charles T. Kelley
This documented briefing describes an preliminary attempt to appreciate analytically how start-of-mission availability and during-mission reliability of military apparatus impact floor strive against power and to evaluate consequent implications for present and destiny forces. wrestle effects have been simulated utilizing the JANUS version and eventualities on hand from past learn. The vital situation for the research used to be a compelled access by means of U.S. forces into tough and seriously foliaged terrain to neutralize pink forces and forestall ethnic detoxing. A moment state of affairs thought of an offensive challenge in additional open terrain. The briefing then attracts upon broader reasoning and approximate research to signify tentative conclusions, and it recommends gains of extra unique paintings.
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Additional info for Impact of Equipment Availability and Reliability on Mission Outcomes: An Initial Look
In the analysis that follows, we assume that the M1A2 availability and reliability numbers are representative of those for all rebuilt Big 3 vehicles. 19NTC observer-controller daily equipment status reports for rotations 99-08 through 01-10. S. 20 We assumed that the equipment was rebuilt in 2000 and applied a 4 percent degradation in reliability per year, as we did previously with the M1A1 data. As before, we did not degrade equipment availability. If we compare the sets of bars for the rebuilt equipment in 2015 with the sets of bars for current availability and reliability in 2000, we see that the capability of the rebuilt equipment in 2015 more than matches the capability of the current equipment in 2000.
The Effects of Equipment Age on Mission Critical Failure Rates: A Study of M1 Tanks,” RAND, unpublished. 35 loss exchange rate provides insight into how changes in availability affect combat outcomes. As the chart shows, the combat capability of the force degrades further as the force ages and reliability degrades. 87, the number of Red elements killed drops to about 45 (out of an initial number of 488 Red elements), and the size of the Big 3 occupying force is only about 75 vehicles (out of an original Big 3 force size of 258 vehicles), only about one-third as large as for the base case.
The square law represents modern warfare, Lanchester argued, fought with long-range weapons that essentially enable all of the firepower of one side to be 10F. W. Lanchester, Aircraft in Warfare: The Dawn of the Fourth Arm, London: Constable and Company Limited, 1916. See also National Research Council, Modeling and Simulation: Becoming a 21st Century Force, Vol. 9 of Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps: 2000–2035, 1997; James Taylor, Force on Force Attrition Modeling, Alexandria, VA: Military Operations Research Society, 1980; and Jerome Bracken et al.